On July 26, the study “Threats to the security of the Republic of Moldova in the short and medium term” was presented to the public. The research was conducted by the Civil Society Platform on Security and Defence. Below are the main conclusions drawn by the authors.

In the last three years, the security environment has been shaken by events with major implications for the security of both states and humanity as a whole. The COVID-19 pandemic, then Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine are two events, which highlight the fact that we remain vulnerable to complex, predictable or unpredictable shocks and dangers. From Moldova’s perspective, internal vulnerabilities and threats increase the impact of external factors on national security.

The study defined and determined the nature of short and medium-term risks and threats that have direct implications for the security of the Republic of Moldova. The threats to the security of the Republic of Moldova in the new context of regional and international insecurity are also highlighted. The aggressive policy of the Russian Federation represents a direct threat to national security, directly threatening the sovereignty and independence of our country, in addition to the threat to our territorial integrity which has persisted since 1992.

At the same time, risks have been formulated that can facilitate the realisation of negative scenarios, exploring existing or emerging vulnerabilities. For example, vulnerabilities are considered:

  • the existence of various controlled political and civic forces, financed and supported by the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova;
  •  local facilitators: local oligarchic, kleptocratic forces with the same interest in changing the governing regime in the Republic of Moldova, either through early elections or a coup d’état;
  • corruption and the weakness of the rule of law;
  • Transnistria – a constant vulnerability;
  • the fragility of the financial and banking system;
  • lack of security culture in society and the political class, poor public communication on security and defence, etc.

The final part of the study proposes policy recommendations and actions that can help mitigate the risks, thereby increasing the country’s resilience to the threat from the Russian Federation. Based on the fact that the identified threats, risks and vulnerabilities are interrelated and complex, the recommendations have been structured along the following dimensions: societal; Transnistrian; national defence and shock resilience dimension; security policy and strategic communication dimension. Specific recommendations are also made to mitigate and eliminate risk-generating vulnerabilities.

Authors: Valeriu PAȘA, Natalia ALBU, Iurie GOTIȘAN, Elena MÂRZAC, Alexandru FLENCHEA, Sanda SANDU, Victor PARLICOV.

image source: FLY:D via unsplash.com

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